South Florida Residential Market Overview.

Pricing & Volume.

Recorded single-family volume across the farmed submarkets came in at 1,873 closings in Q1 2026, down 3.6% from the prior quarter. The median transaction printed at $599,000, or $376 per heated square foot — eased 4.9% QoQ.

Recorded pricing is the discipline of this series: it reflects what buyers actually paid, weeks after the handshake, with the family transfers and data errors filtered out. Asking-price indices run hotter and turn later. On this basis the market is clearing at modestly softer prints — and the submarket dispersion in Section II matters more than the headline.

Submarket Performance.

Every figure below is computed from arm’s-length recorded sales inside the quarter — the same dataset our acquisition engine underwrites against, filtered identically (single-family use, $80–$1,200/SF sanity band).

Submarkets with fewer than 12 recorded sales in the quarter are omitted from the table (thin samples produce unstable medians) but remain in the tri-metric totals.

The Off-Market Layer.

This is the part of the market that doesn’t show up in MLS statistics — and the reason our acquisition pipeline exists. Across the 247,024 single-family parcels on the Miami-Dade roll, the county currently shows:

• 1,906 parcels titled to an estate (“EST OF” on the roll — the owner has passed and heirs control the property).
• 10,946 parcels held in a trust or LLC — professionally-held or succession-planned assets that trade off-market more often than owner-occupied stock.
• 3,775 parcels whose tax bill mails out of state — absentee owners, the single strongest statistical predictor of a below-market sale in our tracking.

These owners rarely list. They respond to direct, credible, underwritten offers — which is why we publish this research and run the acquisition engine behind it.

Outlook & Positioning.

With 1,873 closings on the quarter and median pricing easing, our read is straightforward: this remains a market where the averages hide the opportunity. The spread between well-located, dated housing stock and renovated product is where our flip underwriting lives, and the 16,627 off-market ownership signals in Section III are where those houses come from.

Our posture is unchanged: buy below replacement basis from motivated, off-market sellers; underwrite to current recorded comps rather than asking prices; and keep repair budgets honest. When the spread between what the county records and what sellers hope for widens, patience is a position.